Parallels between Alex Presley and Chris Duffy

Alex Presley has been a disappointment so far in 2012, as he’s hit for just a .230 batting average and .270 on-base percentage. It’s been a “sophomore slump” for Presley, as he provided a spark in his rookie year of 2011. His struggles have been reminiscent of a former Pirate, Chris Duffy.

On the surface, there are quite a few similarities between the two players. They were both eighth round draft picks. They’re both outfielders whose games revolve around speed. Their rookie seasons came at age 25. They both stand 5 foot, 10 inches tall, and weigh 185 lbs. Their stature is the same, their game is the same, and their rookie/sophomore season production seems the same, too. Here’s a look:

First, they’re similar players at the minor league level. In Duffy’s MiLB days, he was a .292 hitter with a .773 OPS. On the other hand, Presley hit .291 with a .778 OPS.

Next, here’s how Duffy produced in his first and second MLB seasons:

	Games	AVG	OBP	OPS
2005	39	.341	.385	.814
2006	84	.255	.317	.654

And here’s how Presley has fared in his first two years:

	Games	AVG	OBP	OPS
2011	52	.298	.339	.804
2012	67	.230	.270	.636

Duffy performed at a higher rate in his rookie season than Presley, but played in 13 fewer games. Their batting averages both drastically fell, and their on-base percentages dipped almost identically. Duffy’s OBP fell 68 points; Presley’s OBP has fallen 69 points. Their decline in OPS is similar as well (Duffy -160, Presley -168).

The biggest concern, especially for a leadoff hitter, is the decreased on-base percentage. Getting the leadoff man on-base changes the entire dynamic of an inning. Despite the huge drop in Duffy’s OBP from ’05 to ’06, he still has Presley beat by 47 points (.317 vs. .270).

Among all NL outfielders, Presley is ranked 93rd in OBP. If he was a qualifier, he’d be dead last by 19 points. One of the Pirates trade targets, Shane Victorino, hasn’t been much better, and has the fifth-lowest on-base percentage among qualifiers. His .316 OBP is nearly identical to Chris Duffy’s .317 in 2006. To Duffy’s credit, he used his speed to his advantage and was an impressive 26 for 27 on stolen bases attempts in 2006. Victorino, also known as the “Flyin’ Hawaiian”, can use his speed as well. In 96 games, he’s stolen 24 bases and has been thrown out three times. Presley is 9 for 13 this year in steal attempts.

As Rum Bunter pointed out this morning, Presley’s numbers have been awfully similar to those of Jose Tabata, who is currently in the minors. Tabata has played five more games at the MLB level, but they have identical .230 batting averages and .636 OPS. It’s also noted how they’ve performed in the minor leagues this season. Presley, who made a trip to Indianapolis in May, played well at the Triple-A level. However, Tabata has really struggled since his demotion.

It’s tough seeing Presley struggle after he showed a lot of promise last season. The Pirates gave him the opportunity but he hasn’t performed up to par. While the numbers are most likely a pure coincidence, there are definitely some parallels between Chris Duffy and Alex Presley. Duffy didn’t last long with the Bucs, but that doesn’t mean Presley can’t stick around. However, his playing time could take a hit if the Pirates decide to upgrade at the trade deadline, which is now just a week away. He’s running out of time to show that he can be a legit leadoff hitter in the majors.

Presley doing what the doctor ordered

After re-acquring Drew Sutton and inserting him into action, manager Clint Hurdle was unsure of how to configure his lineup. Instead of putting Jose Tabata or Alex Presley in the leadoff spot, Hurdle placed Sutton in the top spot. Sutton, who turned 29 on Saturday, has been adequate in that position, but nothing spectacular. Hurdle said the following about his usual leadoff hitters, Tabata and Presley:

“You look at the numbers of our leadoff hitters, that’s not what we need,” Hurdle said. “I mean, a .260 on-base percentage [for Alex Presley], a .288 on-base percentage [for Jose Tabata]. It’s tough. And it’s hard on them, because they want to do better, but this is the Major Leagues. It’s not the try hard leagues. We’ve given both of them a number of at-bats, and you have to be able to find your way and produce as well.”

Presley, who hit just .244 (19 for 78; entering Friday’s game) since returning from Triple-A Indianapolis, simply was not getting on base enough. He has batted out of the first spot in 38 of his 57 games, but sat out of the lineup and leadoff role for a few days. However, Presley has made the most of his opportunities the last couple games and is doing exactly what the doctor (manager) ordered: getting on base.

The biggest improvement that Presley has shown is drawing walks. Before Wednesday, he had drawn just six walks this season in 53 games; presumably why his OBP was so low. Here’s his performance over the past four games:

	PA	AB	H	Runs	BB
Wednesday	2	0	0	1	2
Thursday	1	0	0	0	1
Friday	3	3	2	2	0
Saturday	5	4	1	1	1
Totals	11	7	3	4	4

His four walks in the past four games nearly doubled his season total; he’s had hits in nearly half his at-bats as well.

Presley came into Wednesday night’s game as a pinch-hitter and ended up drawing walks in both of his two plate appearances. He pinch hit on Thursday afternoon and drew another one, increasing his walk totals by 33% in just three trips to the plate. He had a solid game on Friday night, once again as a late-game replacement. Presley was a large part of the Pirates’ drubbing of the Cardinals, as he deposited one into the right field seats in his first at-bat. His long ball was back-to-back with Clint Barmes go-ahead homer and put the Bucs up by two.

He returned to the leadoff spot and starting left field on Saturday. A quick look at his stat line may not show much, as he went just 1 for 4. However, he showed some more positive signs. He drew yet another walk, as well as giving the Pirates some insurance in the ninth by using his speed. Presley laid down a perfect bunt and easily beat it out. He advanced to second on a wild pitch, moving himself into scoring position. He went to third on Jose Tabata’s sacrifice bunt, and scored on Drew Sutton’s grounder to short. It was an impressive play considering the infield was in, but he beat Daniel Descalso’s throw to the plate. Presley also tacked on a stolen base in the game.

Over the last few days, Presley has shown signs of being an effective leadoff hitter: getting on base, using his speed, scoring runs, etc. In just four games, his OBP has gone from .252 to .272, a whopping 20 points. There’s still some work to be done to pull it up to a respectable percentage, but Presley should be able to build upon it. Simply put, the Pirates will score more runs the more he gets on base. The players who are batting behind him have been red-hot as of late; their June stats:
– Andrew McCutchen — .370 avg, 7 HR, 26 RBI
– Garrett Jones – .300 avg, 5 HR, 15 RBI
– Casey McGehee – .291 avg, 5 HR, 16 RBI
– Neil Walker – .292 avg, 2 HR, 17 RBI
– Pedro Alvarez – .262 avg, 7 HR, 20 RBI

The Bucs offense had an insane month of June. Although they probably won’t match it, it’s definitely something to build on. If Presley improves and plays solid baseball out of the leadoff spot, the middle of the order can drive him in. As long as they keep up their solid offense, there’s no reason that they can’t keep winning ballgames.