Pedro Alvarez: Hit or Miss

After a terrible 2011 season in which he hit just .191 in 74 games, Pedro Alvarez has rebounded nicely this year. He’s finally showing the power numbers that were expected of him ever since he came up to the majors. Although he doesn’t hit for much average (which isn’t highly expected from a power hitter), Alvarez has shown some encouraging signs at the plate. However, it’s literally been hit or miss for Pedro since the All-Star break.

The Pirates have played six games since the break; three in Milwaukee and three in Colorado. Alvarez has hit in the sixth spot of the lineup for all six contests. Here’s how he has fared in each:

- Friday vs. MIL (L, 10-7)
1 for 4, HR, K

- Saturday vs. MIL (W, 6-4)
0 for 4, 3 K

- Sunday vs. MIL (L, 4-1)
0 for 3, 3 K

- Monday vs. COL (L, 5-4)
1 for 3, HR

- Tuesday vs. COL (W, 6-2)
0 for 5, 3 K

- Wednesday vs. COL (W, 9-6)
2 for 4, HR, 2 K

Totals: 4 for 24 (.167 avg), 3 HR, 5 RBI, 12 K

Despite a .167 batting average, Pedro has a .542 slugging percentage in these six games; three of his four hits have been home runs. Also, his only non-HR (a single on Wednesday) was originally ruled an error. The ball had some wicked spin on it, and Rockies’ shortstop Josh Rutledge couldn’t make a play on it.

Alvarez now has 19 HR and 55 RBI in 82 games. To put his homers in perspective, approximately 30% of his hits have gone over the fence (19 of 63). In his rookie season of 2010, he hit 16 HR vs. 89 hits, so about 18% went to souvenir city. Last season, he had approximately 9% (4 of 45) of his hits leave the yard. Alvarez has 278 AB this season, so he goes deep about once every 15 at-bats.

El Toro has managed to strike out in half of his at-bats since the All-Star break, and he now has 99 strikeouts on the season. His 99 K’s rank eighth-highest in MLB, and fifth-highest in the National League. Adam Dunn leads the way with 140 strikeouts, while Rickie Weeks is in second with 118.

Pedro’s current six-game streak is very Adam Dunn-esque: low average, plenty of homers, and tons of strikeouts. The 6’6″, 285 lb. Dunn is enjoying an incredible season on the south side of Chicago. His 28 HR and 65 RBI landed him in Kansas City last week for the Midsummer Classic. Dunn is hitting just .212 and has 66 hits on the season, which means about 42% of his hits are home runs. It seems like El Toro will remain low-average/high-slugging percentage over the course of his career, but not as drastic as Dunn.

Pedro has made some solid offensive adjustments and it’s really paying off. He’s on pace for 30+ homers and 100+ runs batted in. Hopefully he’ll add some singles and doubles this homestand on top of a few long balls. Many people believed at the start of the season that Alvarez would be the key to this team’s success. While he’s had his ups and downs, he’s certainly has come through with clutch HR and RBI. Pedro has ridiculous strength and the ability drive baseballs over the fence. If he can continue to provide power in the middle of the lineup for the rest of the season, the Pirates will have plenty of opportunities to score runs and win games.

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Series Preview: Pirates vs. Rockies

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies

July 16, 2012 8:40 pm
July 17, 2012 8:40 pm
July 18, 2012 3:10 pm

Coors Field

Probable Pitchers
Jeff Karstens (2-2, 3.94 ERA) vs. Jeff Francis (2-2, 5.19 ERA)
Erik Bedard (4-10, 4.80 ERA) vs. Christian Friedrich (5-6, 5.60 ERA)
James McDonald (9-3, 2.59 ERA) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (3-9, 6.14 ERA)

Series Notes
The Pirates travel to Denver for the first time this season, carrying a 49-39 record (2nd place NL Central, 1.0 games back)… The Rockies have a record of 34-54 (last place in NL West, 14.5 games back)… The Bucs took two of three from Colorado in late April at PNC Park… Jeff Karstens pitched eight scoreless innings on July 5th, allowing just four hits and recording eight strikeouts… Karstens is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in his last three starts… Jeff Francis is 3-3 with a 6.88 ERA in his career vs. Pittsburgh… Erik Bedard is winless in his past five starts… In his last three outings, Bedard is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA… Christian Friedrich is 2-3 with an 8.01 ERA at home this season… James McDonald lasted just 4.2 innings on Friday in Milwaukee… McDonald is 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA against Colorado in his career… Jeremy Guthrie is 1-5 with a 9.23 ERA at Coors Field this season… Troy Tulowitzki (left groin injury) could be back sometime in August… Todd Helton (right hip inflammation) could return to action by the end of the month… Like Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez leads his team in nearly all offensive categories (AVG, Runs, HR, RBI, SB, etc.)… Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle used to manage in Colorado; Rockies’ manager Jim Tracy used to manage in Pittsburgh… The Rox have the highest team ERA in the league at 5.25… Neil Walker is living the dream with his hometown team.

Go Bucs

Close plays, botched calls increase need of instant replay

The expansion of instant replay has been a hot topic recently in Major League Baseball. Bud Selig has been quoted as saying, “Yes, we had some incidents that certainly need to be looked at. So I’m not minimizing them. But do I believe in instant replay? No, I do not… Human error is part of our sport.” The commissioner is not a fan of expanding replay. The only plays that can be reviewed are home run boundaries, such as fair/foul, whether or not a ball left the playing field, and fan interference. There are various plays every week that are dissected and prove how replay could benefit the game. Two specific instances on Tuesday night in Philadelphia and New York are the types of examples that are increasing the need for instant replay.

First, from the Pirates-Phillies game. It was the top of the seventh inning and the Bucs were threatening; men on second and third, one out, and Neil Walker at the plate. The Pirates cut the Philly lead to one run. On the 0-2 pitch, Walker hit a shallow fly ball to left fielder John Mayberry, Jr. Michael McKenry, who isn’t exactly the fastest runner in the world, decided to take a shot at the plate. Mayberry gunned a perfect throw to the plate and at first glance, it appeared that he was out by a mile. The throw easily beat him home, but Carlos Ruiz didn’t apply a solid tag. When you slow it down, it looks like McKenry may have touched home before being tagged. Watch the video HERE.

From the head-on view, you can tell that it was a high tag from Ruiz:

The best view is provided by the side angle. From this angle, it looks like “The Fort” was safe:

Obviously it all happens so fast and the umpire isn’t on that angle, but instant replay could’ve helped the Bucs. Sure it’s tough to determine how this would’ve affected the remainder of the game, but it certainly took away the momentum that the Pirates started to build up. If McKenry is safe, the score would be 4-4 and they still have a man on second base for their best hitter, Andrew McCutchen. Instead, the rally was killed and the Bucs have their backs against the wall with just two more chances to score and the Phillies up by one run.

Next, from the Yankees-Indians game, which is the worse call of the two examples. Ironically, this play also took place in the top of the seventh inning, but Cleveland was down 4-0. Jack Hannahan popped a fly ball into foul territory down the left field line. Yankees’ left fielder Dewayne Wise ranged over towards the stands and leaped over the railing. At first glance, it appeared that he made a spectacular grab. Broadcaster Michael Kay exclaimed, “And he makes the play! … Yes, he did! He’s got the ball, a little bit of a smile on his face, and his escort out of the stands.” But then, both broadcasters realized that Wise did not catch it. Watch the video HERE.

The first TV replay didn’t show evidence because the umpire was in the way…

…but the second one made it obvious:

(ball circled for emphasis)

Although the umpire’s decision may not have affected the outcome of the game (Yanks won 6-4), it’s still a badly missed call. There’s no excuse there, and if the ump truly couldn’t tell, that’s what replay is for. It’s bizarre that the ump didn’t even ask to see the ball, but instant replay could’ve corrected the call. It was a blatantly missed call, plain and simple. Some tweets from Steve Berthiaume of ESPN:

What in the WORLD just happened in the #Yankees game? Wise NEVER had that ball!

—
Steve Berthiaume (@SBerthiaumeESPN) June 27, 2012

This blown call at #Yankees game may rank among the worst ever.

—
Steve Berthiaume (@SBerthiaumeESPN) June 27, 2012

Umpire Mike Dimuro: "Now that I see the tape it's obvious that the ball fell out of his glove. I should've asked him to show me the ball."

—
Steve Berthiaume (@SBerthiaumeESPN) June 27, 2012

It’s tough to make a final decision on instant replay. It takes away the natural, “human error” of baseball, but it also helps justify incorrect calls. Umpires are constantly being scrutinized for blown calls, and it’s ridiculous that the game goes on despite their common mishaps. One of the worst occurred in Colorado when Todd Helton was nowhere close to the base…

…but the umpire called the runner out.

There are far too many incorrect calls being made, and instant replay could really clean it up. The only questions are how much it should be expanded and when will MLB finally make the move.

Why does Clint Barmes swing so much?

Not only do the Pirates have some of the worst production in the league (lowest amount of runs, lowest on-base percentage, second-lowest batting average, etc.), but they also have terrible plate discipline. The Bucs swing at 48.7% pitches, which is highest in MLB. They swing at 33.8% of pitches outside the strike zone, and swing and miss at 10.2% of pitches, both of which are second-highest. Most of these poor stats are formed from one player: Clint Barmes.

Barmes swings at anything and everything. Here’s a look at his plate discipline compared to league averages:

	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	F-Strike%	SwStr%
Barmes	46.50%	67.90%	57.40%	62.20%	84.20%	75.40%	50.70%	66.50%	13.30%
Average	29.90%	63.90%	45.40%	67.40%	87.10%	80.00%	45.50%	59.70%	8.80%

Key:
O-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.
Z-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.
Swing%: The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.
O-Contact%: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
Z-Contact%: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
Contact%: The overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.
Zone%: The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.
F-Strike% – The percentage of first pitch strikes.
SwStr%: The percentage of total pitches a batter swings and misses on.

Clint swings at 46.5% of pitches outside of the strike zone; the league average is just below 30%. Overall, he swings at nearly 60% of all pitches he sees. He also sees first pitch strikes 66.5% of the time. The problem is that he cannot make contact. He swings and misses at over 13% of pitches; league average is below 9%. He makes contact with 75% of pitches, but league average is around 80%. For comparison, Alex Presley and Neil Walker make contact about 83% of the time. Not surprisingly, Pedro Alvarez only makes contact with 72% of pitches.

However, it was not always like this for Barmes. Check out his plate discipline since 2009:

Season	Team	O-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Contact%	F-Strike%	SwStr%
2009	Rockies	33.70%	51.60%	62.40%	78.40%	62.80%	10.90%
2010	Rockies	36.90%	50.50%	72.20%	83.20%	62.70%	8.10%
2011	Astros	36.70%	50.60%	69.40%	81.10%	58.20%	9.30%
2012	Pirates	46.50%	57.40%	62.20%	75.40%	66.50%	13.30%

As well as a chart of his progression:

As you can see, Barmes has had a much different approach at the plate this season.
- He’s swinging at a lot more pitches outside the strike zone
- Overall, he’s swinging at about 7% more pitches than he usually does
- He’s making contact with less pitches outside of the zone
- Overall, he’s made contact with about 5% less pitches
- He’s swinging and missing more frequently
All of this has resulted in a .193/.213/.304 hitter with 3 HR and 14 RBI.

After seeing this, Barmes’ struggles at the plate could be repaired. He simply needs better pitch recognition and a better ability lay off pitches. He’s swinging at far too many pitches outside the strike zone, but a 10-year MLB veteran should be able to fix that. Manager Clint Hurdle sat him out a few days to clear his mind, and it seemed to help a little bit; Barmes is hitting .300 (9 for 30) in June. Still, there’s a lot of improvement to be done, and the Pirates need Barmes to produce if they want to stay in the race.

Statistics from FanGraphs.